Pro-XRP lawyer John Deaton has tipped less than a 3% chance for the United States Securities and Exchange Commission to score an outright win against Ripple, as an end to the long-running lawsuit draws closer.
The CryptoLaw founder has been a vocal advocate for Ripple against the SEC, which filed a lawsuit against the company in December 2020, alleging that the sale of its XRP (XRP) token represented an unregistered securities offering.
In a June 3 episode of The Good Morning Crypto podcast, Deaton said he tipped a 25% chance that presiding U.S. District Judge Torres rules in outright favor of Ripple, and a 50% chance that Ripple claims victory by way of a “splitting the baby” ruling.
This refers to Judge Torress “drawing a line in the sand”, where she could potentially rule that XRP was offered as an unregistered security before 2018. However, in the wake of the Hinman documents — which refer to a 2018 speech given by former SEC Director William Hinman — it’s possible that cryptocurrencies can transition from securities to commodities once they become sufficiently decentralized.
“I think that XRP itself is going to be deemed not a security and that I think that secondary market sales show comment. Even if [Judge Torres] does rule finding that Ripple violated the law, that doesn’t apply to secondary market sales,” Deaton explained.
While Ripple executives including its CEO Brad Garlinghouse have long been predicting an imminent end to the rollercoaster lawsuit from SEC, Deaton highlighted that Judge Torres will most likely come to a final decision before Sept. 30 this year.
Deaton brought attention to what he called a “six-month list” that district judges must file to Congress. The list details all of the summary judgements that have been pending for longer than six months. It gets published on the last day of March and the last day of September.
“She [Judge Torres] has never been on this list. It’s like a public shame list that says ‘look I’m shitty at my job.’”
Additionally, Deaton also gave his predictions for the price of Ripple’s native XRP token following a positive ruling.
“I certainly believe that somewhere believe $2 and $10 is reasonable”
Speaking to Cointelegraph on May 22, Deaton said that the Ripple community should also keep a close eye on June 13, where investors will discover if XRP was actually discussed “between SEC staff prior to the Hinman speech.” This date is when the Hinman materials will most likely be unsealed and could have a drastic impact upon the case.
There are also rumors circulating that Ripple may potentially IPO as a public company following the conclusion of the lawsuit.
NEW: In April, @Ripple hosted a private “road show” (a marketing event where a company and its underwriters meet with potential investors to generate interest in an IPO). I’m told it was attended by just about every reputable institutional investment firm on the Street. https://t.co/fyTzi6pr0W
— Eleanor Terrett (@EleanorTerrett) June 1, 2023
According to a June 2 tweet from Fox Business journalist Eleanor Terrett, Ripple hosted a “road show” where it met with underwriters and other investors to garner interest in a potential public offering.