Bitcoin and the S&P 500 Index (SPX) recovered from their respective intra-week lows to finish last week on a positive note. The recovery was largely driven by the expectations of a debt ceiling deal being reached between the White House and congressional Republicans.
While the short-term picture looks promising, traders should not let their guard down. Many times, the price rises on rumors and falls on the news. It needs to be seen whether the bulls will build upon last week’s strength or give back some of the gains after the deal makes its way through Congress.
One positive in favor of the crypto bulls is that Bitcoin’s supply continues to diminish because long-term investors with conviction refuse to sell their holdings. Glassnode’s “Hodled and Lost Coins” metric has risen to its highest level since May 2018.
Going forward, what are the important resistance levels that need to be scaled for the up move to continue in Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins? Let’s study the charts to find out.
S&P 500 Index price analysis
The S&P 500 Index turned up sharply from the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of 4,100 on May 24 and rose above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) of 4,145 on May 25.
The bulls are trying to overcome the obstacle at 4,200. If they succeed, the index could rise to 4,300. This level may again act as a strong resistance, but if bulls do not allow the price to drop back below 4,200, the likelihood of a break above 4,300 increases. The index could then start its northward journey to the 4,500 to 4,600 zone.
This positive view will be negated in the near term if the price turns down and collapses below 4,050. The index could then slump to the uptrend line and subsequently to 3,800.
U.S. Dollar Index price analysis
When an asset is consolidating in a range with well-defined boundaries, traders buy the dip near the support and sell close to the resistance. After bouncing off the 100.82 support, the bulls are trying to push the U.S. Dollar Index to the resistance at 106,
The upsloping 20-day EMA (103) and the relative strength index (RSI) near the overbought territory indicate that the bulls are in command in the near term. The up move could reach 106, where the bears are expected to mount a strong defense. If the price turns down from this resistance, it will suggest that the range-bound action may continue for a few more days.
On the downside, the first support is at the 20-day EMA and the next at the 50-day SMA (102). The next trending move is likely to begin on a break above 106 or on a drop below the crucial support at 100.82.
Bitcoin price analysis
The failure of the bears to tug the price below the immediate support at $25,811 attracted solid buying by the bulls. They pushed Bitcoin back into the symmetrical triangle pattern on May 28, but higher levels are attracting selling.
The bears are attempting to stop the recovery at the resistance line of the triangle. If the bulls do not allow the price to slide below the 20-day EMA ($27,255), it will enhance the prospects of a break above the resistance line. If that happens, the BTC/USDT pair could rally to $30,000 and then to $31,000.
On the way down, the first support to watch out for is the 20-day EMA. If this level gives way, it will suggest that the bears are selling on rallies. The pair may then plunge to the vital support zone between $25,811 and $25,250.
Ether price analysis
The falling wedge pattern is a bullish setup. Buyers kicked Ether (ETH) above the resistance line on May 28, indicating that the corrective phase may have ended.
The RSI has jumped into positive territory and the 20-day EMA ($1,841) has started to turn up, indicating that bulls have the upper hand. If bulls flip the resistance line into support, the ETH/USDT pair could rally to $2,000 and subsequently to $2,141. The pattern target of the bullish setup is $2,259.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down sharply and tumbles below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the breakout may have been a bull trap. The pair may then crumble to the support line.
BNB price analysis
The bulls pushed BNB (BNB) above the immediate resistance of the 20-day EMA ($311) on May 28, indicating that the $300 level is acting as a strong floor.
Buyers will try to push the price to the resistance line of the descending channel pattern. The bears are expected to defend this level aggressively because if they fail to do that, the BNB/USDT pair could surge to the overhead resistance of $350.
Contrarily, if the price turns down from the resistance line, it will suggest that the pair may spend some more time inside the descending channel. The $300 level remains the key level to watch on the downside because a break below it could sink the pair to $280.
XRP price analysis
XRP (XRP) climbed above the neckline of the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern on May 28, which completed the bullish setup.
Usually, after the breakout from a pattern, the price returns to retest the breakout level. In this case, the price may drop to the neckline. If the price rebounds off this level with strength, it will suggest that the bulls have flipped the neckline into support. That will enhance the prospects of a rally to the pattern target of $0.55.
Contrarily, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA ($0.46), it may trap several aggressive bulls. The XRP/USDT pair may then slump to $0.44 and subsequently to the crucial support at $0.40.
Cardano price analysis
Cardano’s (ADA) bounce off the uptrend line on May 26 shows that the ascending triangle pattern remains intact, and the bulls are fiercely guarding the level.
The bears are trying to halt the relief rally at the 50-day SMA ($0.38), but if sellers want to gain control, they will have to yank the price below the strong support at $0.34. If they do that, the ADA/USDT pair may plummet to $0.30.
On the contrary, if bulls propel the price above the 50-day SMA, it will signal demand at higher levels. The pair may then rise to the overhead resistance zone of $0.44 to $0.46. A break above this zone will suggest the start of a new up move.
Dogecoin price analysis
The bulls are trying to form a short-term low at $0.07. Dogecoin (DOGE) has reached the 20-day EMA ($0.07), which is the first important obstacle that needs to be crossed.
The 20-day EMA is flattening out and the RSI is just below the midpoint, indicating that the bears may be losing their grip. If the 20-day EMA is crossed, the DOGE/USDT pair could move up to $0.08. This level may again pose a strong challenge, but if the bulls surmount it, the pair may soar toward $0.10.
Another possibility is that the price turns down sharply from the current level. In that case, the risk of a fall below $0.07 increases. The next support on the downside is $0.06.
Solana price analysis
Solana (SOL) broke above the downtrend line on May 27 and the 20-day EMA ($20.42) on May 28, suggesting that the bulls are attempting a comeback.
The flattening 20-day EMA and the RSI near the midpoint also indicate that the selling pressure could be reducing. The 50-day SMA ($21.67) may again act as a minor hurdle, but it is likely to be crossed. That could start a strong relief rally toward $24.
Alternatively, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that bears continue to sell on rallies. The SOL/USDT pair could then retest the crucial short-term support at $18.70.
Polygon price analysis
Polygon’s (MATIC) recovery has reached near the 50-day SMA ($0.97), where the bears are offering stiff resistance.
If buyers do not allow the price to dip below the 20-day EMA ($0.90), it will indicate a change in sentiment from selling on rallies to buying on dips. That will increase the likelihood of a break above the 50-day SMA. If this resistance is scaled, the MATIC/USDT pair could start a rally to the downtrend line.
The 20-day EMA remains the key support to keep an eye on. If this level breaks down, the pair may slide to $0.82. That may keep the pair stuck inside the $0.82 to $0.94 range for a few days.
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This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.