The United States Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on Feb. 7 that the “disinflationary process, the process of getting inflation down,” has started but it is still in its very early stages.
He cautioned that strong data would be met with more rate hikes. Though the comments are mixed, they triggered buying in the S&P 500 and Bitcoin (BTC) on Feb. 7 as investors speculated that the Fed may soon end its rate hikes.
Bitcoin’s strong rally in January and signs of ebbing inflation seem to have turned around investor sentiment. CoinShares data on Jan. 30 shows that institutional investors pumped $117 million into digital investment products. That sent the total assets under management to $28 billion, a sharp 43% increase from its November 2022 low.
Although the sentiment seems to have turned around, bear markets rarely end without a retracement of the rise from the low. The price needs to form a higher low followed by a higher high to confirm a potential trend change.
What are the critical support levels on Bitcoin and altcoins that could arrest future declines? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin slid below $22,800 on Feb. 6 but the bulls purchased this dip. That started a rebound above $23,000 on Feb. 7 but the buyers could not sustain the higher levels.
The bulls are unlikely to have it easy because the bears will try to pose a strong challenge on every rise toward $24,000. Although the upsloping moving averages suggest advantage to buyers, the negative divergence on the relative strength index (RSI) signals that the bullish momentum is slowing down.
Sellers are trying to trap the aggressive bulls by pulling the price below the 20-day exponential moving average ($22,568). If they manage to do that, the BTC/USDT pair may give back a part of its recent gains and dive to $21.480. Buyers are likely to defend the zone between $21,480 and the psychologically critical level of $20,000.
Ether (ETH) rebounded off the 20-day EMA ($1,600) on Feb. 7. The bulls tried to solidify their position by driving the price above the $1,680 resistance on Feb. 8 but they could not sustain the breakout.
This shows that the bears are active near the $1,680 resistance. The sellers will try to sink the pair below the 20-day EMA. If they succeed, the ETH/USDT pair could drop to $1,500. The sellers will have to crack this support to seize control.
Conversely, if the price turns up and rises above $1,700, the pair may signal the start of the next leg of the uptrend. There is a minor resistance at $1,800, but the potential of a rally to $2,000 increases if the bulls do not allow the price to dip back below $1,680.
The bulls successfully defended the breakout level of $318 on Feb. 6, which is a positive sign as it shows that buyers are not waiting for a deeper correction to buy. The bulls will now try to push BNB (BNB) above $338.
If they can pull it off, the potential for a rally to $360 improves. The bears are expected to mount a strong defense at this level but if this barrier is surmounted, the BNB/USDT pair could extend the up-move to $400.
Conversely, if the price turns down and plummets below $318, it will signal that bears sold on rallies. That may trap the aggressive bulls and increase the risk of a fall to the 50-day simple moving average ($284).
The bulls pushed XRP (XRP) back above the 20-day EMA ($0.40) on Feb. 7 but are struggling to sustain the higher levels. This suggests that the bears are not ready to let bulls have their way.
The bears will try to pull the XRP/USDT pair to the strong support near $0.36. This is an important level to keep an eye on because a slide below it will suggest that the pair may extend its consolidation between $0.30 and $0.42 for a few more days. Trading inside a range is usually random and volatile.
If bulls want to seize control, they will have to thrust the price above the $0.42 to $0.44 resistance zone. After this zone is cleared, there is no major resistance until $0.51, hence the pair may travel this distance in a short time.
Cardano (ADA) jumped up from the immediate support at $0.38 on Feb. 7, indicating that lower levels are attracting buyers.
Although the risk from the negative divergence on the RSI remains, the upsloping moving averages suggest that bulls have the upper hand. There is a minor resistance at $0.41 but if this level is crossed, the ADA/USDT pair may touch $0.44. The bears will again try to stall the up-move at this level.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down and plunges below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bulls are tiring out. The bears will then try to sink the price to the 50-day SMA ($0.32).
Dogecoin (DOGE) rebounded off the 20-day EMA ($0.09) on Feb. 7 but the shallow rise showed a lack of aggressive buying at lower levels. The price turned down on Feb. 8 and is testing the support at the 20-day EMA.
If this level gives way, the sellers will try to strengthen their position by pulling the DOGE/USDT pair to the 50-day SMA ($0.08). This is an important support for the bulls to defend because if it gives way, the selling could accelerate and the pair may tumble to the crucial support at $0.07.
On the upside, the bulls will have to pierce the resistance zone between $0.10 and $0.11 to clear the path for a possible rally to $0.15.
Polygon (MATIC) turned up from $1.17 on Feb. 6, which is a positive sign because traders did not wait for the price to touch the 20-day EMA ($1.13) before buying.
The negative divergence on the RSI remains intact but the solid rebound on Feb. 7 shows strong demand at lower levels. This improves the prospects of a break above $1.30. If this level is scaled, the MATIC/USDT pair is likely to pick up momentum and surge to $1.45 and thereafter dash to $1.70.
The long wick on the Feb. 8 candlestick shows that bears are fiercely defending the $1.30 level. Sellers will now try to strengthen their position by pulling the price below the 20-day EMA.
Related: BTC price metric which cued biggest Bitcoin bull runs brakes out at $23K
In an uptrend, the bulls usually buy the dip to the 20-day EMA as it offers a low-risk trading opportunity. Litecoin (LTC) bounced off the 20-day EMA ($94) on Feb. 7, signaling that the uptrend remains intact.
There is a minor hurdle at $102.50 but if that is crossed, buyers will try to propel the LTC/USDT pair to $107. This level may again act as a roadblock but if buyers do not allow the price to dip below the 20-day EMA, the prospects of a rally to $115 increase.
Alternatively, if bears want to gain the upper hand, they will have to sink the price below the 20-day EMA. If they manage to do that, several stop losses may get triggered. The pair could then start a deeper correction to the 50-day SMA ($83).
Polkadot’s (DOT) retest of the breakout level was successfully defended by the bulls on Feb. 7. This shows that buyers are trying to flip the resistance line into support.
The bears are offering stiff resistance near $7. But the rising 20-day EMA ($6.41) suggests that the sentiment remains positive. If buyers drive the price above $7.12, the DOT/USDT pair could travel to $8, which is likely to again act as a strong hurdle.
The first sign of weakness will be a break and close below the 20-day EMA. That may encourage short-term traders to book profits and open the doors for a possible decline to $6 and then to the 50-day SMA ($5.52).
Avalanche (AVAX) bounced off the 20-day EMA ($19.28) on Feb. 7, indicating that lower levels continue to attract buyers. However, the bulls are struggling to sustain the higher levels, signaling that bears are selling on rallies.
The AVAX/USDT pair is stuck between the 20-day EMA on the downside and $22 on the upside. Usually, a consolidation near an overhead resistance is a positive sign as it shows that bulls are not rushing to the exit. If buyers drive the price above $22, the pair may start its journey toward $30.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price breaks back below the resistance line, it will suggest that the bulls have given up and are booking profits. The pair could then slide to the 50-day SMA ($15.61).
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.