Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading in a tight range since Thanksgiving Nov. 24, as traders are uncertain about the next directional move. Usually, in a bear market, analysts tend to become uber-bearish and project targets that tend to scare away investors.
The failure of Bitcoin to start a strong recovery has given rise to several bearish targets, which extend up to $6,000 on the downside.
Although anything is possible in a bear market, traders who have a long-term view could try to accumulate fundamentally strong coins in several tranches. Because a bottom will only be confirmed in hindsight and trying to time it is usually a futile exercise.
In a bear market, all coins do not bottom at the same time. Hence, along with keeping an eye on the broader cryptocurrency market, traders should closely follow the coins of their choice.
The cryptocurrencies that lead the market out of the bear phase generally tend to do well when the next bull market begins. Let’s look at the charts of the cryptocurrencies that are trying to start an up-move in the short term.
Bitcoin has been consolidating between $15,588 and $17,622 for the past few days. The relative strength index (RSI) has formed a bullish divergence, suggesting that the selling pressure could be reducing.
The relief rally could face stiff resistance in the zone between the 20-day exponential moving average ($17,065) and $17,622. If the price turns down from the overhead zone, the BTC/USDT pair could extend its stay inside the range for some more time.
If buyers catapult the price above the overhead zone, it will suggest that the downtrend may be ending. The 50-day simple moving average ($18,600) may act as a minor hurdle but if crossed, the up-move could reach the psychological level of $20,000.
Alternatively, if the price turns down from the overhead resistance and breaks below $15,588, it could signal the resumption of the downtrend. The pair could then drop to $13,554.
The moving averages on the 4-hour chart have flattened out and the RSI is near the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand. This balance could tilt in favor of the bulls if they push the price above $17,000. The pair could then rise to the overhead resistance at $17,622.
Instead, if the price slips below $16,000, the pair could drop to the critical support zone between $15,588 and $15,476. A break below this zone could accelerate selling and start the next leg of the downtrend.
Dogecoin (DOGE) broke above the overhead resistance at $0.09 on Nov. 25 but the bears pulled the price back below the level on Nov. 26. Buyers regrouped and pushed the price above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $0.10 on Nov. 27.
The bears may again try to stop the recovery near $0.10 but if bulls do not allow the price to break below $0.09, the DOGE/USDT pair could pick up momentum and rally toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $0.12. If this level is also scaled, the pair may continue its uptrend toward $0.16.
On the other hand, if the price turns down from the current level, it will suggest that bears continue to view the rallies as a selling opportunity. The pair could then decline to $0.09. If this support gives way, the 50-day SMA ($0.08) could be challenged.
Buyers have pushed the price above the range, which suggests the start of an up-move. The strong rally pushed the RSI into deeply overbought levels, suggesting a minor correction or consolidation in the near term.
If the price turns down from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of $0.10 but rebounds off the breakout level, it will suggest that the sentiment has turned positive and traders are buying on dips. The bulls will then try to resume the uptrend. The target objective of the breakout from the range is $0.12.
This positive view could invalidate in the near term if the price turns down and re-enters the range. The pair could then drop to the 50-SMA.
Litecoin’s (LTC) breakout above the overhead resistance at $75 is the first indication of a potential trend change. The bears tried to pull the price back below $75 and trap the aggressive bulls but the buyers held their ground.
The bulls will try to propel the price above the overhead resistance at $84. If they succeed, it could signal the start of a new uptrend. The rising 20-day EMA ($67) and the RSI near the overbought zone indicate the path of least resistance is to the upside. The LTC/USDT pair could then rally toward the target objective of $104.
Conversely, if the price turns down from $84, the pair could slide to the $73 to $75 support zone. If this zone breaks down, the pair could slide to the 20-day EMA. The bears will have to pull the price below this support to trap the aggressive bulls.
If the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA, the bulls will again try to kick the pair above $84 and start the uptrend.
The 4-hour chart shows that the price broke and closed below the 20-EMA but the bears could not build upon this advantage. The bulls purchased this dip and nudged the price back above the 20-EMA. Both moving averages are sloping up and the RSI is just above the midpoint, indicating that buyers have a slight edge.
There is a minor resistance at $80, but if bulls thrust the price above this level, the pair could rise to $84. The pair could then attempt a rally to $96. If bears want to invalidate this view in the short term, they will have to pull the pair below $73.
Chainlink (LINK) has been range-bound between $5.50 and $9.50 for the past many weeks. The strong rebound off the support at $5.50 on Nov. 21 suggests that bulls are aggressively buying the dips to this level.
The 20-day EMA ($6.74) has started to turn up and the RSI has risen into the positive territory, indicating a minor advantage to the bulls. If the price sustains above the 50-day SMA ($7.15), the likelihood of a rally to $8.50, and thereafter to $9.50, increases.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that bears are active at higher levels. The LINK/USDT pair could then again drop toward the support at $5.50 and consolidate near it for a few more days.
The strong rebound off the $5.50 level is nearing the overhead resistance at $7.50. If the price turns down from this level and breaks below the 20-EMA, the pair could drop to the 50-SMA. A break below this support could keep the pair stuck between $5.50 and $7.50 for some time.
Another possibility is that the price turns down from $7.50 but rebounds off the 20-EMA. The bulls will then again try to drive the price above $7.50 and start the northward march toward $8.50.
ApeCoin (APE) has been consolidating in a large range between $3 and $7.80 for the past several months. The bears tried to sink the price below the support of the range but could not sustain the lower levels. This suggests strong demand at lower levels.
Sustained buying pushed the price above the 20-day EMA ($3.47) on Nov. 26, indicating that the bulls are on a comeback. There is a minor resistance at the 50-day SMA ($4.06), but if bulls clear this roadblock, the APE/USDT pair could rise to the downtrend line.
If the price turns down from the downtrend line, the pair could decline to the 20-day EMA. If the pair rebounds off this level, it will suggest that the sentiment has shifted from selling on rallies to buying on dips. That could improve the prospects of a break above the downtrend line. The pair could then climb to $6.
On the contrary, if the price turns down from the downtrend line and breaks below the 20-day EMA, the pair could again slide to the strong support at $3.
The moving averages on the 4-hour chart have started to turn up and the RSI has jumped into the overbought territory, indicating that bulls have a slight edge. The recovery could face resistance at $4 but if bulls do not allow the price to dip below the moving averages, the up-move may reach the downtrend line.
This positive view could be invalidated in the near term if the price turns down and breaks below the 50-SMA. Such a move will suggest that bears continue to sell on rallies. The pair could then drop to $3.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.